There is nothing in politics more vulnerable than a confident Republican base. Time and again we've seen the GOP with what they perceived to be leads going into an election, only to be shocked by the results. On October 20, 2012, Mitt Romney was ahead of Barack Obama by 6 points in the polls. That changed very, very quickly.
Instead of bragging about the coming "red wave," Republicans should be acting like they're on the verge of massive defeat. Some will argue that confidence is important in driving fundraising and voter turnout, and in most years I would agree. But we are faced with a massively emotional voting population right now who are feeling the economic heat more than most have felt in their lifetimes. That means that whoever they blame for their problems will be who they vote against. Conventional wisdom says they'll blame Democrats since they're in control of the House, Senate, and White House.
Throw conventional wisdom out the door. Here are three reasons why:
Yes, the polls lie
Anyone who's read my work over the past few years knows I am not a fan of polling. I believe polls are used more to manipulate sentiment than to report on it. Currently, the polls are showing Democrats making up some of the ground they lost in recent months.
Considering I said the polls lie, why would I use this as an example of why we need to be concerned? Because reality today may not reflect what they're saying, but clearly that's the direction they want people to think they're going. We don't have to trust polls to appreciate the manipulation they're currently being used for to promote their chosen narrative.
Never underestimate gaslighting and propaganda
Gaslighting works on voters. Propaganda is powerful in shaping voter sentiment. Add in a third component — low-information voter ignorance — and it's easy to see that we may not be in as good of a position as many think we are.
Corporate media and Big Tech are extremely powerful. They shape the mindsets and even the worldviews of millions of Americans. One can argue that the only reason the Democrat Party hasn't imploded from their massive failures in recent years is because corporate media and Big Tech have propped them up. The same can hold true come Election Day.
They will cheat
The 2020 election was stolen. As of today, nobody has been held accountable and only a handful of measures have been put in place to prevent the same type of theft from happening this year.
If we are to have our wins recorded by a small margin, we will have to win by a large margin. They will already have a certain percentage point advantage over many Republican candidates before a single legitimate vote is cast. This, perhaps more than the previous two reasons to get fired up, is what could make the difference between winning and losing.
Three Reasons Republicans Must Start Treating the Midterms Like They're Losing